The Dueling Giants

The past few weeks have highlighted an increasing tension between two lumbering giants: the $31 trillion U.S. economy¹ and global input supply markets, oil and otherwise, impacted by geopolitics. The first week of April saw the release of a slew of economic data, all of which was exceptionally strong across U.S. markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, its third consecutive month of expansion and its strongest reading since August 2022.² Retail sales jumped 0.6% month-over-month in February, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs in March, recovering from February's decline of 133,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.⁴ Sure, the reference data goes back to mid-March and was impacted by some seasonal effects going into the end of last year, but the underlying impulse is undeniable: giant number one, the U.S. economy, has started this year in strong shape and poised for continued growth ...

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