Market Volatility Insights

The last week of July was subsumed by a volatile market and a news cycle dominated by coverage of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) Wednesday decision regarding interest rates. While it was the second such meeting under new chairman Kevin Warsh, unlike his first meeting last month, sentiment this go around pointed to the real possibility of a rate hike heading into the week.

Entering the second half of the year, mid-July has arrived with its typical imperatives that come along with the apex of the summer to finalize vacation itineraries and (just maybe) relax a bit before summer ends, the kids go back to school, and the businesses that always seems to creep up late in the year arrives. At the same time it seems the news cycle has been anything but relaxing. Temperatures have spiked across the country (with a side of apocalyptic smog from Canadian

The past few weeks have highlighted an increasing tension between two lumbering giants: the $31 trillion U.S. economy¹ and global input supply markets, oil and otherwise, impacted by geopolitics. The first week of April saw the release of a slew of economic data, all of which was exceptionally strong across U.S. markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, its third consecutive month of expansion and its strongest reading since August 2022.

Since late February, markets have entered a rates-volatility regime characterized by rising yields, raising concerns about inflation that have all but dashed any hopes of any rate cuts this year. Equity price action remains volatile and weak, however, coming on the heels of strong quarterly earnings results and forecasts for growth, seems more consistent with deleveraging and uncertainty, rather than a full macro slowdown.

Beyond the temperamental weather, March is also a month with historical precedent for upheaval. Shakespeare's famous tragedy of Julius Caesar brings to mind the famous line “Beware the Ides of March” which references Julius Caesar’s real life assassination in 44 BC. Ancient Roman politics notwithstanding, it probably won't be lost on our readers that March of 2026 has been marked by political and military upheaval as well.