The last week of July was subsumed by a volatile market and a news cycle dominated by coverage of the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) Wednesday decision regarding interest rates. While it was the second such meeting under new chairman Kevin Warsh, unlike his first meeting last month, sentiment this go around pointed to the real possibility of a rate hike heading into the week.

Entering the second half of the year, mid-July has arrived with its typical imperatives that come along with the apex of the summer to finalize vacation itineraries and (just maybe) relax a bit before summer ends, the kids go back to school, and the businesses that always seems to creep up late in the year arrives. At the same time it seems the news cycle has been anything but relaxing. Temperatures have spiked across the country (with a side of apocalyptic smog from Canadian

The past few weeks have highlighted an increasing tension between two lumbering giants: the $31 trillion U.S. economy¹ and global input supply markets, oil and otherwise, impacted by geopolitics. The first week of April saw the release of a slew of economic data, all of which was exceptionally strong across U.S. markets. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March, its third consecutive month of expansion and its strongest reading since August 2022.