Eye on the Fed, Eye on Rates
- Brandon Mull, CFA, CFP®
- May 22
- 4 min read
June is around the corner and we approach the new summer season with Memorial Day ahead, vacation schedules planned, and pleasant weather in mind. So too, we conclude another positive earnings season for corporate America, with more than 80% of S&P 500 companies delivering upbeat earnings surprises with an average growth rate of nearly 28%[i]. According to FactSet research the (blended) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for the first quarter of 2026 is 11.4% and if that rate holds with the final few companies, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since the second quarter 2022 (13.9%)[ii]. Notably, while growth was led by technology and associated AI infrastructure spending, all sectors of the market reported strength. The strong data is welcome, but with earnings season now behind us, the market faces a few months with fewer hard catalysts, leaving macro risks and policy uncertainty to fill the void. The recent pullback in chip stocks may betray nervousness about how far the AI trade can go, and more importantly, how quickly. At the same time, hopes of a quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict have faded and U.S. long term government bonds have sold off rapidly, pushing 30 year treasury yields to their highest levels in almost 20 years.[iii] |
